Hvordan vi undgik bjørnen i 2000

Dato 13 oktober 2000 vil for evigt være indlejret i mit sind. Det var dagen efter vores investeringsforening tendens tracking indikator havde brudt sin langsigtede tendenslinje og jeg solgt 100% af mine klienter investeret positioner (og min egen) og flyttet provenuet til sikkerheden i pengemarkedet regnskaber. Nogle folk troede vi var nødder, men jeg var kommet til at stole på tallene.
Ryste ud i aktiemarkedet, som startede i April 2000, havde alle større indekser deres højder, voldsomt efterfulgt af lige så stærk rally forsøg på bænken. Rutschebanetur var så ekstrem, at selv normalt langsom bevægelse investeringsforeninger optrådt så ustabilt som tech bestande.
Af oktober, havde markederne udlignes til en definerbar nedtrend, i det mindste efter min indikatorer. Vi sad sikkert på sidelinjen og set udfoldelsen af hvad der nu anses for at være en af de værste bear markeder i historie.
April 2001 markeder virkelig havde taget et dyk, men Wall Street analytikere, mæglere og finansielle pressen fortsatte med at harpe på de store købe lejlighed det præsenteret. Køb på dips, blev dollar omkostninger Gennemsnitsberegnings og “V” type opsving løbende hyped til de intetanende offentlighed.
Ved udgangen af året, og efter de tragiske begivenheder i 911, markederne var endnu lavere og folk begyndte at vågne op til den kendsgerning, at de investere regler af 90 ‘ erne ikke længere gælder. Historier af investorer har mistet mere end 50% af deres porteføljeværdi var normen.
Hvorfor bringe det nu? Til at illustrere det punkt, at jeg har hele tiden forfægtet i hele 90s; at en metodisk og objektiv tilgang med klart definerede køb og Sælg signaler er et “must” for enhver investor.
At sige det mere rent ud: Hvis du køber en investering og du ikke har en klar strategi for at tage overskud, hvis det går din vej, eller at tage en lille tab, hvis det går imod dig, du ikke investere; du blot gambling.
De sidste 2-1/2 år illustrerer, at det er så vigtigt at være ude af markedet i dårlige tider, som det er at være i markedet i gode tider. Vil have bevis?
Ifølge Investechs månedlige nyhedsbrev viser det sig, at måle fra 1928 til 2002, hvis du startede med $10 og du har fulgt den berømte køb og hold strategi, at $10 vil blive $10,957.
Hvis du en eller anden måde gået glip af de bedste 30 måneder, vil din $10 kun være $154. Men hvis det lykkedes at gå glip af de 30 værste måneder, din $10 ville være $1,317,803! Således er min pointe: mangler de værste perioder har dybtgående indvirkning på lang sigt compounding. Der er tidspunkter, når du afslutter op bedre ved at være ude af markedet.
Interessant nok, hvis du gik glip af de 30 bedste måneder og de 30 værste måneder, ville din $10 stadig være værd $18,558, hvilket er 80% højere end den køb og hold strategi. Alt dette kommer, fordi aktiekurserne generelt gå hurtigere end de går.
Wall Street og de fleste mennesker har en tendens til at overse værdien af minimere tab, og det er præcis, hvorfor bjørnen nedrevet mere end 50% af mange folkeslag porteføljer, mens jeg og dem, der er tillid til mit råd undslap værst af dyrets krigsstien.

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